October 31st, 2007

Betting On the Future

Fed Prediction

If I have it figured right, the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged today. The market will get pissed and go down a bit until early next week when the price of oil will do something, or one of those Indicator numbers will come out, and everyone will react to that forgetting about the Fed and interest rates for the time being.

Edited to add that I was wrong. :-(

From the Fed's press release (with a slight addition by yours truly):

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/2 percent.

Economic growth was solid in the third quarter, and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat on balance.  However, the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term, partly reflecting the intensification of the housing correction.  Today’s action, combined with the policy action taken in September, should help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and promote moderate growth over time so all of our rich buddies can scam even more money out of you sorry peons while we joyfully gut the American economy.