September 11th, 2008

Hurricane

Maybe Here, Maybe There, Maybe Almost Anywhere.

From the National Hurricane Center's 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008 Forecast Discussion:

ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL
OCCUR. THE HWRF IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
FORECASTS A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING RIDGE THAT TAKES IKE INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE TURNING NORTH. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL IS
THE RIGHTMOST MODEL WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THAT ALLOWS IKE TO TURN
INTO THE GALVESTON AREA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AS IS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST....WHICH IS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED.
SINCE THE TIMING OF THE TURN BEFORE LANDFALL IS SO UNCERTAIN AND SO
KEY IN WHERE THE CORE OF IKE COMES ASHORE...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND NOT GOING IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK. EVERYONE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA HAS ABOUT THE SAME RISK OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS.
FORECASTER KNABB
2008-09-11 Computer Models 111am

Computer model graphic from Weather Underground.
Hurricane

The Texas Version Of A Snow Day

From the Austin American-Statesman:

"All Austin public schools will be closed early Friday in anticipation of heavy vehicle traffic on major roads from Hurricane Ike evacuees."

(snip schedule of which schools close when)

“This is a precautionary step to remove students and buses from the roadways as early as possible. We are expecting a great deal of traffic from evacuees on local roads and highways. The safety of students is our first consideration.” Superintendent Pat Forgione said in a written statement."

The article goes on to list a number of other school districts that are closing early.