curiousALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL
OCCUR. THE HWRF IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
FORECASTS A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING RIDGE THAT TAKES IKE INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE TURNING NORTH. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL IS
THE RIGHTMOST MODEL WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THAT ALLOWS IKE TO TURN
INTO THE GALVESTON AREA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AS IS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST....WHICH IS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED.
SINCE THE TIMING OF THE TURN BEFORE LANDFALL IS SO UNCERTAIN AND SO
KEY IN WHERE THE CORE OF IKE COMES ASHORE...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND NOT GOING IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK. EVERYONE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA HAS ABOUT THE SAME RISK OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS.
FORECASTER KNABB
