HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
300 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE
INTENSIFICATION OF IDA HAS HALTED...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THE
LATEST PRESSURE MEASURED ON A PASS THROUGH THE CENTER WAS 984
MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT
TERM...AS IDA WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...IDA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER
WATERS...BELOW 26C AFTER 48 HOURS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
INCREASE MARKEDLY AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPINGES ON IDA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS IDA UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR
TIME FRAME AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND A SURFACE FRONT
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL
WEAKENING FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING AS IDA
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.